Critical Observer

RUSSIA'S GAMBLE: STEPPING UP INVOLVEMENT IN SYRIA

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In ramping up its military involvement in Syria's civil war, Russia appears to be betting that the West, horrified by the Islamic State group's spread and an escalating migrants crisis, may be willing to quietly tolerate President Bashar Assad for a while, perhaps as part of a transition.<br />
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The logic is that prioritizing the fight with the jihadis means accepting Assad as the less bad option despite his own brutal acts, and might produce a more effective and coordinated fight in the air and on the ground.<br />
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It also would reorganize an awkward situation in Syria, whereby the Assad regime and the U.S.-led coalition are actively fighting the same group but do not act like allies - as opposed to coordination the coalition maintains with the central Baghdad authorities in the parallel fight against Islamic State group in neighboring Iraq.<br />
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Russia has no such complications.<br />
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A longtime backer of Syria's government, Moscow has recently increased its military activity in Syria, sending military advisers, technicians and security guards with the main goal of setting up an air base near the coastal town of Latakia, a stronghold of the Syrian president. There are reports that the Russians had flown in troops and modular housing units. And Israel's defense minister, Moshe Yaalon, says he expects Russians to be fighting alongside Assad's troops.<br />
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Even more than the concurrent assistance by Iran and proxy Shiite militias on behalf of Assad, Russian military intervention could potentially be a game changer in the Syrian conflict, tipping the scales in a spectacularly ruinous civil war that has killed a quarter of a million people and created a massive global humanitarian crisis.<br />
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The degree and speed of the impact depends on scale. And there is also a chance that the Russian efforts could prolong the bloodshed, counteracting the various U.S. efforts to train and arm palatable rebel groups.<br />
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Russia claims it is mainly motivated by fighting IS. But U.S. President Barack Obama cast the buildup as an effort to prop up Assad.<br />
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Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, warned that "doubling down" on the Assad regime "is not a winning strategy." In an interview with CNN, she said that "Assad cannot be part of a solution ... because he gasses his people, uses barrel bombs against them and is responsible for one of the worst torture campaigns in modern memory." Even if "all you cared about is (Islamic State) this is not going to bring peace or succeed in defeating terrorism," she said.<br />
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Despite such statements, evidence suggests Russian President Vladimir Putin believes the West can be swayed, if only informally. Moscow may also hope that a creatively constructive role in Syria might help improve ties with the West, ravaged in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis,<br />
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"Putin has proven an excellent tactician on the Syrian crisis, and he currently likely senses a chance to increase Russia's prestige and influence with relatively little pushback from the international community," said Ayham Kamel, Middle East and North Africa director of the London-based Eurasia group.<br />
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"Putin probably realizes that the U.S. and Europe are no longer enthusiastic about regime change in Syria and are more focused on the threat of the Islamic State," he added.<br />
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Indeed, European leaders have recently begun voicing what many say the Obama administration will not say publicly.<br />
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British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond told Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee that his government was willing to accept "compromises" with Russia and Iran that could see Assad play a role "for some months" in a transition process.<br />
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A day earlier, Austria's foreign minister was even more direct, saying the West should involve Assad in the fight against IS. Sebastian Kurz's comments came during a state visit to Tehran, and reflected what some officials have been saying privately for months.<br />
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"One should not forget the crimes that Assad has committed, but also not forget the pragmatic view of the fact that in this fight we are on the same side," Kurz said.<br />
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A true Russian buildup could complicate future American military action in Syria, including a safe zone along the Turkish border which has been discussed with Ankara.<br />
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While neither the U.S. nor its Saudi allies currently preoccupied with the war in Yemen are likely to openly confront the Russian deployment, both are likely to respond by stepping up their aid to anti-Assad rebels.<br />
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It also carries risks for Russia, where memories of its 1980s struggles against Islamic fundamentalists in Afghanistan still sting: an increased Russian presence may itself become a target for Syrian opposition and jihadi elements.<br />
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Syrian opposition member Badr Jamous warned that rebels will regard any foreign fighters deployed on the side of the government as a legitimate target.<br />
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Moscow may also be trying to ensure it has a say in a future political settlement, as ideas percolate around the region. There are reports that Egypt, an erstwhile ally of Russia and China, is considering a rapprochement with Assad.<br />
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The Russian moves follow the successful conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal, in which Moscow also played a key role. Both countries have a huge investment in the Syrian regime, which along with being a client state provides Russia with its only remaining Mediterranean and Middle Eastern base in the port of Tartus.<br />
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A series of major defeats for the Syrian military may have hastened Russia's decision to intensify its activity in Syria. Extremists are estimated to be in control of half the ravaged country, while rebels backed by the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Turkey have made striking gains in the country's north and south, putting pressure on Assad's coastal heartland.<br />
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There is speculation about whether the Russians may convince Assad to accept a face-saving transition process that incorporates the Western-backed rebels into a power sharing deal.<br />
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But several Lebanese politicians with close links to the Syrian government who frequent Damascus say the Syrian leadership is confident of the support of its Russian and Iranian friends and does not feel threatened enough to negotiate.<br />
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The extent of Moscow's involvement in Syria will likely remain sketchy until Putin speaks at the U.N. general assembly later this month.<br />
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A Pentagon spokesman, Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, said Monday the U.S. is closely monitoring the buildup.<br />
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"We have seen indications in recent days that Russia has moved people and things into the area around Latakia and the air base there that suggests that it intends to establish some sort of a forward air operating base," Davis said.<br />
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He said the U.S. has concerns about ensuring that any Russian military air operations not come into conflict with U.S. and coalition airstrikes that are being conducted in other parts of Syria against Islamic State targets and that "things that continue to support the Assad regime ... are unhelpful and risk adding greater instability to an already unstable situation."<br />
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A recent analysis by The Soufan Group, a New York-based private risk assessment company, predicted worsening conflict amid the regional maneuvering.<br />
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"Already a lethal cauldron of regional proxy warfare, Syria will further deteriorate if the U.S. and Russia use both sides of the civil war as leverage against the other," it said.<br />
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by Zeina Karam of Associated Press

RUSSIA'S GAMBLE: STEPPING UP INVOLVEMENT IN SYRIA

In ramping up its military involvement in Syria's civil war, Russia appears to be betting that the West, horrified by the Islamic Sta...

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RUSSISA: 95,000 TROOPS IN MASSIVE MILITARY DRILL

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Russia on Monday launched its largest military exercises of the year, Centre-2015, involving some 95,000 soldiers including ground troops, navy and air force units.<br />
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The long-announced war games are "the most large-scale drill of 2015," the defense ministry said.<br />
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Russia has recently intensified snap checks of its military might, testing its capabilities from the Arctic to the Far East as relations with the West have plunged to a post-Cold War low over the Ukraine crisis.<br />
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Centre-2015 takes place at 20 sites across Russia's central military district, which reaches from the Volga River to the Ural mountains and Siberia in the east, while also including far northern Russia.<br />
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Troops from member states of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), made up of several ex-Soviet countries, are also involved in the exercise.<br />
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The defense ministry said the war games are aimed at testing the readiness of the military of the CSTO countries to "manage coalition groups of troops in containing an international armed conflict."<br />
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The troops will simulate "blocking and destroying illegal armed formations during joint special operations," the ministry said.<br />
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The drill begins as leaders are to arrive in Tajikistan for a summit of the CSTO that starts Tuesday.<br />
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The exercises running to September 20 include 20 naval ships and up to 170 aircraft, the defense ministry said.<br />
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President Vladimir Putin will observe the drills during one of the days, Russian daily Izvestia reported last week, without giving details.<br />
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The main action will take place in the Urals, in the Siberian Altai region and in the southern Astrakhan region and the Caspian Sea, the commander of troops in Russia's central military district, Vladimir Zarudnitsky told journalists, quoted by Interfax news agency.<br />
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In European Russia, 12,000 troops will take part in drills at military ranges in the Urals region close to Kazakhstan involving around 90 tanks as well as 20 artillery and rocket launcher systems.<br />
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Kazakh troops will also take part and a military delegation from Nicaragua will act as monitors, Zarudnitsky added.<br />
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From: L’Agence France-Presse (AFP)

RUSSISA: 95,000 TROOPS IN MASSIVE MILITARY DRILL

Russia on Monday launched its largest military exercises of the year, Centre-2015, involving some 95,000 soldiers including ground troops...

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RUSSIA READY TO ESTABLISH AIRBASES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES – RUSSIAN PM

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Russia could create more Air Force facilities on the territories of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member-states, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev told journalists at the meeting of the heads of Eurasian Economic Union governments.<br />
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“As for agreements concerning the establishment of such bases, we already have such facilities… in Kirgizia and Armenia, and there is no wonder in this fact. We are, in fact, ready [to strike agreements on the stationing of air bases] with any of the countries with which we have alliance treaties, whether it is CSTO or CSTO Plus, like in the case of the Republic of Belarus,”Dmitry Medvedev said at the meeting, which took place in the Belarusian city of Grodno.<br />
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The Eurasian Economic Union, which was established on May 29 2014, is a regional economic union that currently includes Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kirgizia.<br />
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The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is a wider regional military alliance, founded on May 15 1992, that also includes Tajikistan.<br />
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Alongside Dmitry Medvedev, the Grodno meeting was attended by the heads of Armenia, Belarus and Kirgizia, while Kazakhstan was represented by the First Vice-Prime Minister.<br />
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Russia and Belarus are also setting up a joint air defense system, Lieutenant General Pavel Kurachenko, Deputy Commander of the Russian Air-Space Forces, told journalists.<br />
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As of now, the air defense forces of Russia and Belarus have been acting independently, although they share information and regularly conduct joint drills.<br />
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The service guidelines for the Joint Regional Air Defense System are now to be approved by the Russian and Belarusian defense ministers, Kurachenko said, adding that “the practical implementation of the agreement is to be finished by the end of 2016.”<br />
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The system will fall under the command of Major General Oleg Divalev, the commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense, RIA Novosti reports.<br />
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The two countries signed an agreement back in 2009 to create a joint air force to defend the borders of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.<br />
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“Our priorities now include the development of a bilateral air defense systems and their further regional integration, i.e. creation of joint regional air defense systems in the eastern European, Caucasian and central Asian regions for collective security,”Kurachenko said.<br />
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The Russian Air-Space Forces’ Deputy Commander emphasized that Russia and Kazakhstan are now developing the legal basis for their joint air defense system, adding that a corresponding agreement between the two nations was signed in 2013.<br />
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He also said that Russia is working on creating similar joint air defense systems with Armenia, Kirgizia and Tajikistan.

RUSSIA READY TO ESTABLISH AIRBASES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES – RUSSIAN PM

Russia could create more Air Force facilities on the territories of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member-states, Russian...

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US TRAINS IN BLACK SEA WITH UKRAINE’S DEPLETED NAVY

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The United States is co-hosting drills in the Black Sea with what is left of Ukraine's devastated navy, which lost about two thirds of its sailors and ships after Russia seized Crimea last year.<br />
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The maritime operation, dubbed Sea Breeze, began Tuesday and is an annual exercise that this year includes contingents from 11 countries practicing air defense, search-and-rescue procedures and a variety of other tactical maneuvers aimed at boosting regional security.<br />
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Ukraine's naval force was eviscerated when Russia seized the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea in March 2014. Moscow snatched much of the fleet moored in strategic ports, and convinced thousands of sailors to jump ship.<br />
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US Vice Admiral James Foggo III, who helped launch the international training mission, said on Wednesday that the Ukrainian navy dropped from about 17,000 to 5,000 sailors.<br />
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"They essentially lost about two-thirds of their people and about two-thirds of their ships," said Foggo, who had spent time in Odessa, which is the Ukraine fleet's new home after losing the Crimean port of Sevastopol.<br />
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"What they lost was capacity, they lost numbers," he told reporters. "But what they maintained was the professionalism of those who decided (to stay) with Ukraine."<br />
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Russian ships are asserting their presence in the Black Sea as the training exercise takes place, Foggo noted, but he said interactions between navies had so far not been tense.<br />
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The USS Donald Cook, a guided-missile destroyer, is participating in the exercises along with the Ukrainian frigate Getman Sagaidachniy, the flagship of Ukraine's navy that was only spared Russian capture by chance.<br />
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When Russian special forces soldiers without insignia started seizing strategic locations around Crimea, the frigate was on its way back home from a training mission in the Gulf of Aden.<br />
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Foggo met with Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and said authorities there are keen to modernize the navy.<br />
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"Perhaps bringing in some new warships as their budget will support," Foggo said. "Obviously they have to work through a number of issues."<br />
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Violence continues to simmer in eastern Ukraine, undermining ceasefire efforts.<br />
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Kiev and the West accuse Moscow of backing pro-Russia rebels with weapons and troops, a claim the Kremlin denies.<br />
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Other nations involved in the Sea Breeze exercise include Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Moldova, Romania, Sweden, Turkey, and Britain.<br />
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from AFP

US TRAINS IN BLACK SEA WITH UKRAINE’S DEPLETED NAVY

The United States is co-hosting drills in the Black Sea with what is left of Ukraine's devastated navy, which lost about two thirds o...

Read Article »

U.S. Shadowing Russian Ship in Atlantic Near Nuclear Submarine Areas

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U.S. intelligence ships, aircraft, and satellites are closely watching a Russian military vessel in the Atlantic that has been sailing near a U.S. nuclear missile submarine base and underwater transit routes, according to Pentagon officials.</div>
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The Russian research ship Yantar has been tracked from the northern Atlantic near Canada since late August as it makes its way south toward Cuba.</div>
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Defense officials familiar with reports on the Russian ship say the Yantar is believed to be gathering intelligence on underwater sensors and other equipment used by U.S. nuclear submarines based at Kings Bay, Georgia. The submarines, their transit lanes, and training areas stretch from the coastal base through the Atlantic to Europe.</div>
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Intelligence analysts believe the ship, one of Russia’s newest military research vessels commissioned earlier this year, is part of a larger strategic intelligence-gathering operation against U.S. nuclear missile submarines and other targets.</div>
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One official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, said the ship is a concern because it is equipped with deep-sea surveillance craft and cable-cutting equipment.</div>
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<a href="http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/yantarminisub.jpg" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ed4a18; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><img alt="yantarminisub" class="aligncenter wp-image-477523" height="357" src="http://s1.freebeacon.com/up/2015/09/yantarminisub.jpg" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="630" /></a></div>
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In addition to cutting or tapping into undersea cables, the Yantar’s gear also could be used to rescue submarines if they become entangled in underwater cables.</div>
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A second defense official said the Yantar’s mission is not only to prepare to disrupt underwater communications. The ship is also part of a Russian underwater reconnaissance program to identify undersea communications trunk lines and nodes.</div>
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A major target of the program is the Department of Defense Information Network, known as DoDIN. Moscow is seeking to map the global information network that is vital for U.S. warfighters and policymakers and is a key target of Russian information warfare efforts.</div>
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The network includes dedicated military links as well as leased communications and computer systems.</div>
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Another concern related to the sea-based intelligence activities is that Russia has been adopting new warfighting techniques the Pentagon has dubbed hybrid warfare.</div>
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Hybrid conflict combines traditional military capabilities with information warfare techniques, such as cyber attacks. The disabling of undersea Internet cables could be a part of future hybrid warfare attacks as nations become increasingly reliant on global information networks, officials said.</div>
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Non-government military analysts identified the Yantar off the coast of Nova Scotia around Aug. 24.</div>
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More recently, an underwater military blog called “7 Feet Beneath the Keel,” reported the Yantar’s location on Sept. 1 as 90 miles north of the Turks and Caicos Islands in the Atlantic Ocean, some 769 miles from Kings Bay.</div>
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<a href="http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/yantar2.jpg" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ed4a18; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><img alt="yantar2" class="aligncenter wp-image-477517" height="420" src="http://s2.freebeacon.com/up/2015/09/yantar2.jpg" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="630" /></a></div>
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A Pentagon spokesman said the military is aware of the ship. “We respect the freedom of all nations to operate military vessels in international waters in accordance with international law,” the spokesman said.</div>
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The Yantar—Russian for “amber”—was built in a Baltic Sea shipyard of the same name and launched in last spring, the state-run Sputnik news agency <a href="http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150523/1022493017.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ed4a18; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none;">reported</a> on May 23. The ship will be used for deep-sea research and rescue operations.</div>
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The ship is part of Russia’s Northern Fleet and is equipped with two deep-sea remotely piloted submersibles.</div>
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“The ship carries the latest, most innovative equipment for acoustic, biological, physical, and geophysical surveys,” the report said.</div>
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“The Yantar is equipped with a unique on-board scientific research complex which enables it to collect data on the ocean environment, both in motion and on hold. There are no similar complexes anywhere,” said Alexei Burilichev, director of deepwater research at the Russian Defense Ministry, Sputnik reported.</div>
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Steffan Watkins, a Canadian-based open-source intelligence analyst who monitors Russian ship movements, said the Russian navy sends such auxiliary vessels to the region once or twice a year to check on existing U.S. underwater sensors or cables that have been detected previously. The ships also search for new equipment on the sea floor that would reveal U.S. operations.</div>
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In April 2014, the Pentagon said it was watching two Russian spy ships, the Viktor Leonov and Nikolay Chiker operating in the Atlantic near Kings Bay.</div>
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“I don’t think the Yantar is actively pulling up underwater cables,” said Watkins. “It seems more likely‎ they’d use their underwater sensors to map out defenses to prepare for future operations, and to avoid, blind, or destroy the sensors.”</div>
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<a href="http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/yantar4.jpg" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #ed4a18; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><img alt="yantar4" class="aligncenter wp-image-477520" height="473" src="http://s2.freebeacon.com/up/2015/09/yantar4.jpg" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="630" /></a></div>
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Officials said another factor increasing U.S. concerns about Russian reconnaissance is Moscow’s recent adoption of a new military doctrine that places a greater reliance on strategic nuclear forces.</div>
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In addition to research ships, Russia’s military also is building a new class of intelligence-gathering and electronic warfare ships called Yuri Ivanov-class vessels.</div>
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Germany’s <em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">Bilt</em> newspaper reported last month that the new spy ships are designed to track and follow U.S. warships. The ships will also provide communications and fleet management, conduct electronic warfare capabilities, and gather radio and electronic intelligence. The first ship was launched in July and three others are planned.</div>
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The new Ivanov spy ship was launched the same day that President Vladimir Putin unveiled a new Russian maritime doctrine that divided naval operating areas into six regions: Atlantic, Arctic, Antarctic, Caspian, Indian Ocean, and Pacific.</div>
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Russia’s priority for shipbuilding under the new doctrine will be ballistic missile submarines and nuclear attack submarines for its Northern and Pacific fleets.</div>
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Russia is deploying a new class of nuclear missile submarines called the Borey-class and maintaining existing Delta III and Delta IV missile submarines. Another generation of submarines beyond the Borey-class is also planned for 2030 to 2050.</div>
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A Russian embassy spokesman did not respond to an email request for comment.</div>

U.S. Shadowing Russian Ship in Atlantic Near Nuclear Submarine Areas

U.S. intelligence ships, aircraft, and satellites are closely watching a Russian military vessel in the Atlantic that has been sailing near...

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Russia successfully tests Topol ballistic missile

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The Russian military has performed the successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, part of the RS-12M Topol family, from the Kapustin Yar testing range in the southern Astrakhan region, TASS reported. The missile’s warhead hit the designated hypothetical target at the Sary-Shagan range in Kazakhstan “with the desired precision,” Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement. The launch was aimed at testing “promising combat equipment for intercontinental missiles,” the ministry added.

Russia successfully tests Topol ballistic missile

The Russian military has performed the successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, part of the RS-12M Topol family, from ...

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