Active Sunspots, Filament Eruption & Severe Storms

NEWS Transcript: February 12, 2014

Thanks for tuning in. Plenty of solar activity over the last 24 hours as we had 3 M-Class solar flares making a total of 5 M's in just under 48 hours. It's still all eyes on sunspot group 11974 which has been the culprit behind this flaring uptick. Sunspot group is still magnetically complex with Beta-gamma-delta meshing. The region flare probabilities chart definitely doesn't give 11974 any of the faith that i do, as 976 seems to be their proverbial "Golden Child" with them giving it a 5% chance of an X-Class with a further 30 for an M. I think those numbers should be the other way around, at least until for now before 11976 gains strength, which it inevitably will. The ENLIL forecast model showing the ejecta from 11974's M Flare arriving late on the 14th. However I did notice a big filament eruption on the southeast edge of the sun. After further examining the coronal hole graph, it seems that the area where this eruption took place shares a magnetic connection with the Earth and coincidentally the SDO image feed got all screwed up as I was only able to see the beginning of the eruption. The video clip that came off the Solar Dynamics Observatory's website shows the eruption followed by a wobble which looked like the SDO spacecraft making position correcting maneuvers or having some sort of a malfunction. So it seems that only the image feed dropped out during that time.

Shame, because this was a good one and you were able to only see it in 304 angstroms.. Which unfortunately seems to be the  feed that was affected most and has missing images for that block of time after 7:03UTC. Back on track.. We have a small coronal hole, which will be rotating into the Earth facing position in the next couple of days but as the field graphic shows, nothing brewing in that department right now.

Looking at the weather in the US. Low pressure system bringing a huge ice-storm to Georgia and parts of Tennessee. Last week they had two inches and it brought Atlanta to it's knees. Current temps hovering around the freezing mark causing sleet and ice accumulation. Moving 24 hour into the future, we see the system move north and begin to pummel the northeast with expected snow total of 6-10 inches for the new york city area. The temperature over the Atlantic, off the coast of the Carolinas is expected to be about 65F, with sustained wind-speed estimated at roughly 30mph. Temps for the New York area are expected to be at max 34 degrees with wind gusts of 20mph coming off the warm Atlantic ocean helping pad the snow totals in the area.

Looking at Europe we still see the two powerful low pressure systems west of the British isles and Ireland with temperatures remaining well above the freezing mark. That seems to be the only upside to the whole situation as these two depressions are currently the two most powerful systems on the planet at the moment. Moving 24 hours into the future, the bottom cell continues moving northwest, over the UK and onto Sweden and Norway meeting up with it sister in the upper latitudes. I thought the people of northwest Europe can breathe a sight of relief, when I noticed cell number 3 developing in the mid Atlantic. This cell is gaining strength and is headed northeast towards.. you guessed it .. the UK. Forecast shows this system arriving in the next 48 or hours or so as these 3 hour skips from tomorrow afternoon, seem to indicate. Looks like those weather models from yesterday were right on point as i discussed having two or three low pressure beasts affecting that part of the world at the same time all winter. Why aren't more people speaking out about this?

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