Filament Eruption, Big Earth Directed CME & Extreme Weather

NEWS Transcript: February 18, 2014: 

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We'll start with the most obvious solar weather story, the big earth directed, filament eruption from last night which started prior to midnight on Monday, February 17th and lasted into the night. This was reminiscent to the zipper eruption which took place a couple of years ago. Density forecast has the plasma plume reaching 50 with solar wind speeds in the mid 500's. This was a beautiful spectacle and it's due to reach us sometime late on February 21 or early on February 22. Auroral forecast map shows potential probabilities of seeing a light shows over the north Atlantic as pretty good. Looking at the X-Ray flux graph, everything has been quiet in the last 2 days with no major flaring or flare related CME's. Looking at the active sunspots, we see that the only good candidate for flaring, group number 11982 and 83 are rotating into the earth facing position and I am waiting for the magnetogram to show the actual strength of those two groups as when the sunspots are on the edges on the coronal disk, the HMI instrument can't make correct measurements due to the fact that it can't see through the penumbral wall. Coronal holes are equatorial, earth facing and strengthened since yesterday with wind speeds hitting 600km/s earlier in the day. Solar wind making small spikes over the last 24 hours on top of the coronal hole increase, probably from those little C-class ejecta from group 11977 as it was trying to strengthen while making its way across the coronal disk. KP Index looks fine and like I said we shouldn't have geomagnetic instability for at least 3 more days when the ejecta from the earth directed filament eruption arrives. KP hitting 6 perhaps? We'll have to wait and see. Notable earthquakes in the last 48 hours include a 5.7 off the Kermadec Islands in New Zealand and a 6.7 off the east coast of Martinique.




In weather news, we'll start from above and work our way down. The jet stream forecast model shows the
jet stream weakening over the North American continent and the northeastern pacific region roughly 60 hours
from today. Notice the gigantic undulation this causes, sending a pocket of warm air way up into the Arctic
3 to 4 days from now. Same exact thing in Europe where the faster rushing jet stream air crashes into the
slows moving air in front of it causing bends and waves Like metal bending in a car accident. We've been
having some spectacular weather this winter. 2014 started of with a bang. Dumping snow in places like Iran
and the middle east. Some of these places have never seen snow in their recorded history. From Iran, to the
Northeast to one of the most sensitive areas in regard to climate, with some of the most powerful storm
systems this year, Great Britain and Europe. They have been devastated by storm after storm that was fueled in part by the warmer Atlantic waters brought in by the Gulf Stream Thermohaline circulation system. Warmer
temperatures means stronger storms, giant waves, storm surges, homes swept out to sea, rivers bursting over
their banks. Just look at this NOAA surface air temperature anomalies map. Notice how the change seems to
happen faster and faster. Partly due to feedback loops in the environment such as ice being more reflective
than water or earth, and the more of it melts, the more dark areas you expose, further accelerating warming
in the Arctic. The Arctic is where all the action is happening. It's warming faster than any other place on
the planet. With more temperature anomalies, of higher magnitude, than anywhere else, this is the front-line
on the climate change debate. The debate on this issue needs to be replaced with action. The fact is the
planet is warming, especially in the Arctic. We can argue about how much man is contributing to this warming
and how much of it is natural, but the bottom line is, the ice is melting and sea levels are slowly rising.
Regional instabilities, politics and economic issues are stealing the focus from the climate issue and this
topic isn't on the minds of the masses. But storms increasing in strength and the atmosphere more angry than
ever, people are slowly starting to open up their eyes to the climate reality. I don't think it matters at
this point whether or not it's man-made warming. Our cities and our populations are living on the planet's
coastlines and rising levels are going to devastate cities like Miami, London and New York. Displace tens of
millions from Bangladesh and make the Maldives disappear into sea like Atlantis. I think we can all agree
the bottom line is the Arctic is warming, sea levels are rising and something needs to be done because 70%
of the human population lives on the coastlines or near water. Our ozone layer is receding like the
hairline of a 35 year old white guy with the baldness gene. I once heard a phrase in a movie, I think it was
the movie "Hackers" from the 90's with Angelina Jo Lee, which to this day I still can't forget and always
ponder about how perfectly it applies to our modern way of life. "Greed will imprison up all" I think it
perfectly summarizes the lexicon of politics and corporate influence over government, specifically on the
issues of climate change and sea level rise.