M1.1 Solar Flare, Sunspot Report & Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORT: March 2, 2014:
Let's begin with the solar activity report from the last 24 hours. In summation, nothing too exciting. All that beta-gamma hoopla yesterday didn't amount to much as we had just 1 flare above C-Class strength which by the way, we had 7 of today so far. This M-Class solar flare just happened with the last couple of hours and came from the now departed group number 19986. So who cares. The best sunspot groups as of now are still 11990 and its sister 11991. With the latter of the two, having tremendous development with the magnetic complexity in it's central area between the bipolar umbral grouping. The solar flaring probabilities of the two sunspot groups are as follows, the original gangster beta-delta 11990 still has the 70% for the M-Class and a reduction in X-Class probability from 30% to 25%. It's Beta-Gamma sister spot 11991 has a 30% chance of an M-class event with a further 5% for the X. But I still believe that those numbers will rise. Even though those numbers are somewhat impressive (relatively speaking of course) these two groups aren't the most active. With group number 11982 taking the cake in that category producing 3 C-Class flaring events today alone. This group however is just about out of here along with it's siblings 81, 83, and 84 some of which are already out of view. Checking other potentially Earth affecting features, we see one incoming coronal hole on the northern hemisphere and a couple more sprinkled around the coronal disk. There's also one the bottom, which the HEK and the ASSA plots don't seem to have. The Carrington plot does have it on there however and it also shows where our magnetic connection with our star resides. It is in an active coronal hole stream on the eastern sub-equatorial region of the sun where it seem to like to hang out recently. With the magnetic connection always landing in that region. We also have a big filament in that area which is now even closer to that magnetic connection point that not only The Earth, but Mercury and Venus share with the sun as well and this magnetic connection point grouping might destabilize this plasma filament and have it leave the sun as a Coronal Mass Ejection. No significant incoming ejecta to worry about although I would expect small spikes in solar wind readings due to the amount of sunspots producing C-class flares over the last 3 or 4 days. Checking the incoming solar wind, it's reading a calm 350km/s with the solar wind density undergoing small spikes between 3 and 10 but this is still considered baseline. The interplanetary magnetic field is responding to those density spikes with the total B-Field Vector dipping to -4nT but this isn't a significant dip really as to see a good aurora you need it to go down to at least -10nT. Proton flux graph shows the proton count of all energies is continuing it's way down to baseline. The GOES Magnetometer is showing very smooth curves and the current KP index is reflecting that, showing us a worry-free level 1 reading.

In summation your chances of seeing an M-Class Flare over the next 24-hours is 75% and a further 25% for an X-Flare. One out of 4 for the 4th day in a row? I like those odds.